Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 81536.199428 86080.270490 90623.350141 95503.001600 100592.544230 105741.170988 111339.943212
2025-01-26 75021.784851 82050.459237 89273.694652 97241.451316 105773.520676 114625.436739 124492.993854
2025-02-02 70526.633814 79310.545891 88534.219426 98920.524039 110268.711957 122269.635041 135898.444642
2025-02-09 66522.528431 76588.962325 87352.755127 99683.451112 113382.217367 128097.681052 145063.576102
2025-02-16 62670.111479 73681.743756 85647.031151 99563.001205 115249.236802 132330.081830 152280.868389
2025-02-23 59791.589982 71631.842431 84683.686777 100068.480188 117633.997919 136990.120872 159855.995653
2025-03-02 57021.282197 69520.917412 83484.708128 100149.640121 119401.703038 140847.778411 166444.298899
2025-03-09 55257.139095 68451.079456 83369.600222 101373.564288 122392.484164 146034.125959 174509.324107
2025-03-16 52681.413471 66299.134930 81881.837118 100894.714554 123321.164312 148784.465119 179725.848974
2025-03-23 51461.148606 65682.394082 82129.513729 102392.805550 126511.848628 154123.851826 187936.023801
2025-03-30 50020.030615 64725.945783 81910.146940 103281.290417 128942.113160 158552.657116 195080.474750
2025-04-06 48254.504000 63298.835978 81059.193804 103352.287394 130350.548439 161746.431399 200755.860227
2025-04-13 46418.630144 61746.914539 80032.436367 103201.689302 131505.491730 164677.347598 206191.890345
2025-04-20 45712.080051 61569.430203 80662.671433 105057.862444 135088.244296 170525.823268 215157.168947
2025-04-27 45025.795809 61381.596438 81252.637013 106846.122630 138583.671816 176282.054187 224047.569943
2025-05-04 43917.399669 60611.805661 81080.253888 107658.254924 140861.624570 180561.904196 231168.608372
2025-05-11 42433.455854 59307.152116 80189.463910 107530.145831 141943.884650 183366.468406 236491.076066
2025-05-18 41339.583062 58468.205635 79852.578769 108068.023587 143832.237848 187147.501908 243013.484811
2025-05-25 40103.360390 57400.727681 79186.407522 108154.383260 145129.182737 190186.447342 248624.283053
2025-06-01 39464.671214 57098.245696 79483.823456 109456.577691 147952.954706 195121.899694 256602.736282
2025-06-08 38083.590177 55761.927988 78401.621411 108947.128134 148448.497020 197139.856689 260949.855350
2025-06-15 37649.090271 55683.159355 78948.986037 110540.856972 151629.493330 202530.866392 269538.024053
2025-06-22 36970.799083 55249.549342 79010.061248 111485.931872 153971.562938 206871.933937 276829.981508